NFL’s Final Four

January 19, 2012

I had a great week picking last weekend’s games. I picked the two upsets (San Francisco and the New York Giants) along with the victories by New England and Baltimore. We are down to three games remaining. This week, I will take New England and San Francisco which will give us a Patriots-49ers Super Bowl.

I am going with New England over the Ravens primarily because of Tom Brady. It is at quarterback where the Patriots have the biggest advantage. Brady is playing at an unbelievable level. Did you see him throw for six touchdown passes (five in the first half) against a substantially better than average Denver Broncos defense. I’m not sure Baltimore has an answer for the Patriots’ passing game right now. I did some quick math and learned that the Pats are averaging 40.5 points in their past four games. If New England scores early, that puts immense pressure on Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco to respond. I doubt a Brady versus Flacco shootout will go the Ravens’ way.

Baltimore’s only hope is that its pass rush can pressure Brady and that its best offensive player, RB Ray Rice, has a huge game, a 150-200 yard outing that would keep Brady off the field. It could happen. Like it did in 2010 when the Ravens eliminated New England, in New England, from the playoffs. What I remember most about that game was how Rice opened the game up with a 83 yard touchdown run that gave Baltimore an early lead that ended up being a first round knockout. The Ravens will need that and more out of Rice. I want you to remember that Baltimore is 9-0 this year when Rice carries the ball over 20 times. Watch his carries on Sunday. I don’t think he will see the ball 20 times since I see the Pats jumping out to a big lead that will force Flacco to have to throw the ball. And that is not good news for the Ravens.

I really like San Francisco to win at home over New York. The Giants will learn quickly, like they did earlier this season when they lost to the 49ers, that San Francisco’s defense is not as soft as Green Bay’s defense was last weekend. I told you in these pages last week that the Packers would lose because of their defense. San Francisco will win this week because of its defense. Eli Mannings of the Giants will be seeing a lot of Justin Smith and Aldon Smith this weekend. Just like Drew Brees of New Orleans did last week. The Smiths combined for nine quarterback hits on Drew Brees. This team hits. I heard on the NFL Network this week that Saints’ Pierre Thomas was the seventh running back they’ve knocked from a game this season. 

First year coach Jim Harbaugh has done a remarkable job turning this franchise around. He has always preached defense and taking care of the ball. Apparently his players are listening to the sermons as the 49ers have the top defense in the NFC to go along with an offense that has only turned the ball over one time since Week 12. The Giants may keep this close but I just can’t see them winning.

As Indy Turns

It is becoming to look like a soap opera in Indianapolis with the Colts. After finishing 2-14 last season without the injured Peyton Manning, Indianapolis owner Jim Irsay made the bold decision to fire team vice chairman Bill Polian and his son, Chris, the general manager. A few weeks passed and we learned on Monday that head coach Jim Caldwell was let go.

It is beginning to look more and more like Irsay will be the one who decides what Indy will do with the number one pick in this April’s college football draft. Or he will fill the vacancies with employees who will draft who he tells them to draft. That also means Irsay will make the decision to take Andrew Luck with the top pick. That’s the easy part. The tough part is deciding what to do with Manning.

Colts Owner Jim Irsay

Manning’s future in Indianapolis is uncertain. The Colts must decide in March if they will pay him a $28 million option bonus that activates the final four years of his five-year, $90 million contract. If the Colts elect not to pay Manning, he’ll become an unrestricted free agent.

Everyone knows Manning’s health is the primary issue. We also know that, even at 35 years old, if Manning is healthy, he’s an elite quarterback.

Should Manning return at full strength, does he really want to spend the last few years of his career with Luck looming behind him? And does Indy want to pay two quarterbacks over $50 million dollars next season? That is a lot of money for one position.

Peyton Manning

The Colts are in the unenviable position of trying to set themselves up for the future in the presence of a living legend. It’s a delicate process and if the Colts aren’t careful, they could alienate Manning. I just think if Manning stays he’s going to tie up too much cap space. The new GM and coach will quickly realize this team has a lot of needs. There are also some veterans who want to make one last run.

My solution. Trade the pick (Luck) and draft Heisman Trophy winner, Robert Griffin, III. Griffin is ready to go if Manning can’t return to the field. But he also would be better suited to learn from Manning if the veteran can give the Colts a few more years. My solution gives the Colts a chance to win right now and for years to come. They end up with Manning and RG III to go along with multiple players and draft picks that would come from the trade.